I have not stopped competing. But lately I keep asking myself whether I have what it takes to continue right now, while I build a business, with less money, and with a head overloaded with other things. If you play seriously, or you are building something of your own, you probably know this question. This is how I am working through it, with the questions you can use for yourself.

The question I am asking now

This year I left my job to go independent. About a month later I won a WSOP Circuit ring, at a tournament I was not even supposed to be at. Going was not a small investment for my situation back then, and I went anyway, because I saw myself as a poker athlete with goals for the year.

Now I am building the business, there is less money, my head is full, and I feel it in my poker.

When I won, I wrote that a single tournament says nothing about my game or about me. It does not answer this question either: not whether going was right, and not what to do now.

First: what are you playing for?

Poker is not my source of income. I want to become a good enough player in my own way, as an amateur, and keep the fun part: the people, the social side. What I want from life is to work, travel, study, be with people, connect, contribute and keep developing. Poker is a great ground for all of that. It also takes a high price.

So "am I good enough?" is the second question. The first is "what is this for, and what am I paying for it?". The same goes for a business. Owners who keep going or stop are weighing what else they could do and what the work gives them beyond money.¹

Try it: write two lists side by side. What the game gives you. What it costs you: money, sleep, head space, people. Then look at whether the second list is eating the first.

What it takes, and what matters less than it looks

I went looking for what it actually takes to succeed, in poker and in building a business.

Where this comes from: research on business owners,³⁴⁵ on risk and optimism,⁶⁷ on experienced players,⁸⁹ single results,¹⁰ willpower,¹¹ patience¹² and sleep.¹³ Time and a cushion is my own view, with research on keeping an income further down. Poker has far fewer studies than business, so treat this as direction, not proof.

What I take from it as a coach: you do not have to love risk or feel confident all the time. I would work on wanting it, taking the initiative, deciding in advance and staying steady.

Try it: in the first list, mark the two that are strongest in you today, and the one that is weakest right now. Ask someone who knows you to do the same.

What money and a full head actually do

I once wrote that money stress hurts attention and decisions. A famous study said something like that, and later, larger tests found no reliable effect.¹⁴¹⁵ What I found is about risk. Experienced players take more risk when they are behind and want to get even,² and people turn to risk when the safe choice does not cover what they need.¹⁶ Stress can also do the opposite and make you careful.¹⁷

So the question is not whether money makes you stupid. It is what it makes you try to do at the table.

You cannot answer this from your results. Even a player with a real 19% edge is still behind after 100 tournaments about one time in three, in a simple model made for this article. You can answer it from your own hands, in two weeks:

Taking it personally, and telling fear from courage

I take it too personally. The success, the cost, the dynamics at the table, being a woman in the game, the fear of performing. I have a long way ahead on this one.

I know the fear from my own hands: I lose value when I am scared to bet against aggressive players and in multiway pots. I also know the opposite: with 20 big blinds, my leak is shoving first, and I have lost a big pot that way.

My test is to listen to the question I am asking myself. When it is "why not?", I look for a real reason not to bet, I cannot find one, and I lean in. When it is "why yes?", I am collecting reasons to call or shove: he is bluffing, I don't believe him, it's because I'm a girl. That is the gambler in me, and there I fold. Yours may run the other way, so check it against your own hands.

I also try to apply my own rule: every leak has another side. Taking it personally is also what makes you care enough to do the work. The aim is to keep that, and to stop carrying it into every hand.

Try it: after your next session, write down one hand where you asked "why not?" and one where you asked "why yes?". Then see which one you would play again.

When to step back, wait or keep going

When I went independent, I set out a success scenario and a failure scenario: if nothing moved in the time I gave it, the experience would still be enough to go back to a salaried job. Annie Duke calls these kill criteria.²¹ Write yours: if by [date] [this] has not happened, I will [move down / pause / stop]. Then give it to someone.

The same logic works in a business. When I went independent, I wrote that you need reserves, cash-flow planning and room to breathe. If you can, keep an income while you test: people who started while still employed, then went full time, were more likely to survive than those who quit to start.²⁴

Plan for a long road

The big win you want may not happen in this lifetime. So I tell players to plan as if it needs 200 years, and to make it a path they would keep and enjoy even if they never see the end. Then set milestones that count on their own: cashing more often, lower monthly expenses, playing less, more time for other things, enjoying your work.

When someone comes to me stuck, the block is usually one of four: discipline, money, exposure or knowledge. Often discipline plus one other. Part of the work happens away from the table, with small things: wait five minutes before you eat. Go alone to a museum and ask a stranger about the painter.

Five questions for this week

1. What am I playing for?

   Three words, not a paragraph.

2. What is it costing me right now?

   Money, sleep, head space, people. Write real numbers where you can.

3. Which block is it today?

   Discipline, money, exposure or knowledge. Pick one.

4. What can I practise away from the table this week?

   One small thing, for the same trait, three times.

5. What would make me stop, by when, and who will I tell?

   Write the sentence. Send it to that person today.

I do not have my answer yet. I am still competing, I am asking these questions, and I have a long way ahead.

General thoughts on decisions, not financial or investment advice. Poker is for players 18 and over. If you play with money you need for living, or find it hard to stop, read about responsible play.

Sources

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